Interpreting the scientific output

It has been a very interesting year in terms of climate science.  The north pole is beginning to resemble a defrosting freezer and people are gradually waking up to the fact that it’s changing way, way faster than expected.

One thing that doesn’t change however is scientists who report in complete isolation. I know, I know, my favourite rant.  However it is very true nevertheless.

In my reading of the scientific reports, I have gleaned two separate facts:

1. From 1979 – 2006 the sea ice minimum has dropped by 20%
2. Since the 1970’s the average sea ice thickness has dropped by circa 50%

Now all I hear is 20% on one article or 50% on the other and by far the bulk of the articles talk about the sea ice Extent being lost.  You have to search really hard to find the sea ice thickness results.  However if you cross correlate both results and do the maths, the *amount* of ice, mass, or whatever you want to call it, has dropped by 60% in the summer low ice period since the 1970’s.

Now 60% of ice loss is not EVER reported anywhere.  I wonder why?  Is anyone thinking Al Gore might not be so much of a whack job right now?

Add to that the fact that the winter sea ice is not freezing back at the same rate and you have a dramatic acceleration of loss which is being significantly miss-represented.  In fact Ice which normally had 6 months to form and solidify (October to April) is now only forming in December and is melting in March.  3 months on a good year.

This is a reduction in the freezing season of 50%!  Massively less time than is being mentioned.  The best you can get out of the scientists is one month either side.

Ok we are only talking about some 2% of the entire area, however it is this weak short term ice which is melting faster and removing protection from the perennial ice.

Looking at the IR scans you can see an increasing tendency for the warmth of the water to show through the ice in the depths of winter.  Further accentuating the thinning of the ice which did not previously show heat through it.

My take is that unless this winter season extends well into May 2007, then large cruise class ships will be able to sail right to the pole in the summer next year.

However of course, as always, I could be wrong.  But then I don’t have the whole world analysing what I’m saying and crucifying me when I get it wrong.

Have a look at the images and decide for yourself.

http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html

For the sea ice thickness you’ll have to surf.  It takes a little digging.